Great Online Soccer Gambling Site Options 479543

Just How To identify value in your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, linked webpage where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they are "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there is no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could be the very best value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the probability of each outcome is just not for this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is the best one to show how to use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Because of this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.