Great Online Soccer Gambling Options 624121
Just How To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that might provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers will vary to the extent you can find a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. This means you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so may be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the prospects of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than can be given here where we have been managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a good online gambling site one to show the best way to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
