Great Online Soccer Gambling Agency 4477541

How Exactly To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they supply a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory make sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the chances of each outcome isn't for this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than may be given here where we are handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is a great one to show just how to use percentages.

It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or good online football gambling site assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.