Best Online Football Casino Tips 2786228

Just How To identify value in your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and just how they give a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at great soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that one can find a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. It means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the probability of each outcome is just not because of this article. It deserves more detailed treatment than may be given here where we have been going through bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There can be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is a good one to show how you can use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.