Great Online Soccer Gambling Agent 8644378

Just How To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, Related Homepag lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you can make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there is absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you assess the prospects of each outcome is just not for this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are going through bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is the best one to show the best way to use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.