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The Best Way To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or fantastic online gambling agent draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you could find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could possibly be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the chances of each outcome is not due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There can be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great one to show the way to use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.