Good Online Soccer Gambling Site Details 3728464

Just How To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they offer a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may vary to the extent that one can locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there's no difference within the odds offered for please click the following post draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the chances of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we are managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is a great one to show how exactly to use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.